EXTENDED TIGHTNESS RESHAPES THE FUTURES CURVE

HRC FUTURES CURVE SHIFTS AS EXTENDED TIGHTNESS DRIVES FRESH LONGS

The CME Midwest HRC futures curve has evolved to price in a more prolonged period of market tightness, pushing the peak out to January 2027 above $1,400/st while the long end remains anchored in the low $1,100s. After weeks of rising prices on declining positioning, money-manager net longs jumped by nearly 2,000 contracts as fresh buying returned.

Despite potential risks from renewed Canadian trade negotiations and looming supply additions, lean inventories and lead times exceeding nine weeks mean new volume may be readily absorbed before physical conditions loosen.