Macro Flash Report

Automotive Sector

Takeaway:

September auto sales came in better than expectations. This, along with the decline in August inventories suggests that the eventual restock and higher consumption from auto will have a longer runway, once affordability concerns are in the rear- view mirror.

Wards Total Vehicle Sales

Wards Total Vehicle Sales jumped to 15.80m in September, surpassing market expectations of a 15.60m rebound from August’s disappointing 15.10m sales. Although a good sign, sales have still yet to hold above the 16.1m pre-pandemic steady state.

In August, Auto Inventories dropped to 214k from July’s 269k, which was the highest level seen since April 2021. This marks the lowest level since October 2023. Even at last month’s local peak, inventories were not able to reach half of their whole year 2019 average of 664k, suggesting that producers are still waiting to see appropriate economic conditions to ramp production and restock.

Auto Production for August should be released in the upcoming days, which although volatile has been on a downward trend since August 2023.