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Fundamental Report

Supply-Side Takeaway:

Domestic production ticked higher but remains suppressed, while imports continue to point to gradual normalization. Overall, if these trends hold the domestic steel market is moving toward a resolution in the current surplus by early next year. Global pricing remains under pressure.

This week’s data: The Domestic – Global HRC price differential tightened further this week as the domestic spot price and the global average price both declined. On the imports side, census data for October arrivals came in just below the 900k level, while November’s estimated imports continued to show easing. Domestic production ticked up yet remains relatively subdued.

HRC Spot Prices – US Domestic & Global
  • The global HRC spot price fell to $649 from $653. This week the price changes were from: -$12 in Europe, -$6 in Turkey, -$4 in Korea, and -$2 in China.
    • This marks the sixth consecutive week of the global price being bound by the range of $653 – $649.
  • The Domestic – Global HRC spread contracted further, narrowing to $41.47 from $47.47.
Total Sheet Imports (s.ton)
  • This week’s imports estimated sheet arrivals for November indicate further easing, declining to 871k tons from October’s census figure of 892k.
  • The named countries from the filed trade petition represent nearly 80% of the expected total arrivals for coated products in 2024.
Domestic Production (s.ton)
  • For the week ending on November 23rd, capacity utilization ticked up by 4% to 74.5% and domestic raw steel production rose to 1.655m from 1.623m/tpw.
  • This brings the year-to-date production to 79.038m, operating at a rate of 759%, -2.1% below this point last year.