RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
2024 REVIEW & 2025 OUTLOOK
JANUARY 6, 2025
Major Takeaways:
Overall, the U.S. economy is in a good position to continue to be the envy of the rest of the developed market economies.
Balance sheets for both consumers and firms are in a healthy position which should lead to stable growth and a higher probability of reacceleration than cooling.
1Q25 is set up to have strong headwinds as last year’s steel surplus still exists. Dynamics in 4Q24 domestic production and buyer inventories suggest that a rally in HRC prices would be muted and find resistance at $800.
We are already seeing signs of life in steel demand. However, 2Q25 and beyond is the timeframe where we anticipate strong recoveries in all the steel demand subsectors that we measure, excluding automotive. That is construction, manufacturing, appliance/household, and energy.
Overall, the U.S. economy is in a good position to continue to be the envy of the rest of the developed market economies.
Balance sheets for both consumers and firms are in a healthy position which should lead to stable growth and a higher probability of reacceleration than cooling.
1Q25 is set up to have strong headwinds as last year’s steel surplus still exists. Dynamics in 4Q24 domestic production and buyer inventories suggest that a rally in HRC prices would be muted and find resistance at $800.
We are already seeing signs of life in steel demand. However, 2Q25 and beyond is the timeframe where we anticipate strong recoveries in all the steel demand subsectors that we measure, excluding automotive. That is construction, manufacturing, appliance/household, and energy.
Latest
Jan 16, 2025
Fundamental Report
Supply remains somewhat restrained with imports in their continued downtrend and domestic production below it’s long-run average. Global prices remain under significant pressure, which led to an expansion of the Domestic-global differential.
Jan 15, 2025
Macro Flash Report
This week’s December inflation data came in below expectations, temporarily pausing the sustained upward momentum that has developed over the last couple of months.
Jan 14, 2025
Macro Flash Report
December data from the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses) Small Business Survey continues to impress with the highest Optimism reading since October 2018, another encouraging signal from the “soft data” going into the new year.
Jan 10, 2025
Macro Report
Data from this week continue to show that the year ended with a strong labor market and an industrial sector that was unable to find its footing.
Jan 9, 2025
Fundamental Report
Import arrivals have recently trended sharply lower, while domestic production saw the first consecutive down move in 13 weeks (period was between Christmas & New Years). The domestic price has been steady, while global prices continue slipping.
Jan 3, 2025
Macro Report
The holiday week’s industrial data came in mixed but provided additional bright spots for a manufacturing recovery early next year.
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