FGM’S ECONOMIC ANALYST GABY AIN FEATURED IN SMU

Week over week, the futures curve saw minimal change. In the featured chart, we compare last week to today. The overall shape remains consistent, indicating an unchanged market view—with the first two months (June and July) slightly lower, while September ticked up and is still pricing in a bottom in June. Looking back a month, the overall curve has a similar shape, but has notably shifted downward. A reasonable conclusion for a shift rather than a change in shape is because the market is being driven by demand, which has been soft, or certainly softer than anticipated going into the spring.