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Fundamental Report

Supply-Side Takeaway:

Our first view of November import arrivals came in above expectations, declining more slowly than expected, while domestic production is beginning to increase, albeit from still low levels.

This week’s data: The Domestic – Global HRC price differential tightened further this week as the domestic spot price declined while the global average price also fell, albeit slighter. On the imports side, this week’s estimate for October arrivals continues to indicate an increase, whereas a first look at November’s imports shows easing. Domestic production ticked up yet remains somewhat subdued.

HRC Spot Prices – US Domestic & Global
  • The global HRC spot price fell to $649 from $653. This week the price changes were from: -$16 in Europe, -$6 in Turkey, and -$5 in Korea.
  • The Domestic – Global HRC spread contracted further, narrowing to $50.89 from $51.55, reaching the lowest level since late August.
Total Sheet Imports (s.ton)
  • This week’s imports estimated sheet arrivals for November indicate further easing, declining to 879k tons from October’s estimate figure of 909k. If the final number for November comes in at that level, it would be
  • The named countries from the filed trade petition represent nearly 80% of the expected total arrivals for coated products in 2024.
Domestic Production (s.ton)
  • For the week ending on November 9th, capacity utilization ticked up by 0.9% to 74.2% and domestic raw steel production rose to 1.649m from 1.629m/tpw.
  • This brings the year-to-date production to 75.760m, operating at a rate of 0%, -2.1% below this point last year.