Macro Flash Report

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

Takeaway:

Last week’s worse than expected jobs report stirred market concerns, turning today’s jobless claims data crucial for assessing overall labor market health. Simply put, this data brings a sigh of relief, but current levels of restrictive rates will cause continued cooling.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims declined by 17k to 233k, the most in nearly a year and below the market expected 240k. This follows the prior week’s upwardly revised 250k, which was the highest in a year, potentially alleviating some concerns that the labor market is cooling too fast.

The four-week moving average grew to 240.75k, the highest in about a year. Looking forward, the threshold which would cause concern for the 4-week moving average would be 260k (red dotted), anything below that signals healthy market fluctuation.

Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 6k to 1875k, the highest since November 2021 and above the forecasted 1870k.

Despite these figures all trending higher, they are still hovering around 2019 levels.