Macro Flash Report

Housing Sales

Takeaway:

September housing data show a continued divergence in the trends for new and existing home sales. Given the lack of forward guidance in interest rates, we anticipate that the lack of existing home inventory will continue to benefit new home sales through the end of the year.

New & Existing Home Sales

In September, New Home Sales soared by 4.1% to an annual rate of 738k units, exceeding market expectations of 719k and rising from a downwardly revised level of 709k in August. This marks the highest annualized sales level since May 2023.

  • The Northeast saw a surge in sales (+21.7%), while the Midwest was the only region to experience a decline.
  • Inventory levels stood at 470k new homes for sale, equating to a 7.6-month supply at the current sales pace.
  • The median price for new homes sold was $426,300, with an average price of $501,000, largely unchanged from the prior year, $426,100 and $515,000, respectively.

In contrast, Existing Home Sales fell by -1.0% in September to an annual rate of 3.84m units, missing forecasts of a rise to 3.90m and following a revised 3.88m in August. This represents the lowest level since October 2010.

  • Sales were lower across all regions except the West, which saw a 4.1% increase.
  • Inventory of existing homes rose to 1.39m units, the highest since October 2020.
  • The median sales price continued its three-month decline, falling to $404,500 from $414,200.