Back to Reports

Macro Flash Report

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)

Takeaway:

September Topline PCE showed a further year-over-year decline, while Core PCE (the FED’s preferred inflation measure) remains elevated and sticky as prices in the service sector continue to climb at a slightly uncomfortable pace.

Topline (blue) & Core PCE YoY (white)

Core (Ex Food & Energy) PCE YoY held steady at 2.7% in September, slightly above market expectations of 2.6%. Core PCE MoM rose by 0.3%, marking the highest gain in five months and matching forecasts. This followed an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in August.

  • Service prices increased by 3%, while goods prices decreased by -0.1%.

PCE YoY dropped to 2.1%, its lowest since February 2021, in line with forecasts and down from a revised 2.3% in August. PCE MoM climbed by 0.2% in September, in line with expectations and up from 0.1% in August.

  • Food prices rose by 4%, while energy prices fell by -2%.