Fundamental Report

Supply-Side Takeaway:

This week, the U.S. Domestic – Global price differential expanded further, driven by an increasing US domestic price, and continued declines in the global average price. For imports, February’s census data of arrivals showed a notable reduction in imports, whereas preliminary data for March’s arrivals are indicating a substantial increase, suggesting an overall higher trend in imports as the delayed tons continue trickle in. Meanwhile, after scaling back for two consecutive weeks, US domestic production jumped back up to the higher end of the neutral range.

HRC Spot Prices – US Domestic & Global

• The global HRC spot price fell to $703 from $708, marking the ninth-consecutive week of declines. This week the decrease was primarily due to a $11 drop from Europe, a $10 slip from China, and a $6 dip from Korea.

• The Domestic – Global HRC spread widened further, expanding by another $15 to $117, this is the fourth consecutive week of expansion.

Total Sheet Imports (s.ton)

• Imports estimated sheet arrivals for March point to the highest level of import arrivals since March 2022, by rising to 988k from February’s census data showing a notable slump in arrivals, dropping down to 758k.
• Supply chain issues and shipping delays could be the reason for the February dip, but preliminary data is still showing an overall trend higher in imports.

Domestic Production (s.ton)

• For the week ending on March 30th, capacity utilization ticked up by 0.8% to 77.5% and domestic raw steel production rose to 1.722m from 1.703m/tpw.
• This brings the year-to-date production to 21.752m, operating at a rate of 76.2%, -2.6% below this point last year.