Fundamental Report
Supply-Side Takeaway: Import arrivals have recently trended sharply lower, while domestic production saw the first consecutive down move in 13 weeks (period was between Christmas & New Years). The domestic price has been steady, while global prices continue slipping.
This week’s data: The Domestic – Global HRC price differential expanded as the domestic spot price held steady while the global average price slipped further. On the imports side, December’s arrivals continue to indicate an increase from November’s imports, which census data showed the lowest level since November 2023. Domestic production continued to tick down, reaching the lowest level in 7 weeks.
HRC Spot Prices – US Domestic (blue) & Global (gold)
- The global HRC spot price declined to $637 from $640. This week the price changes were from: -$7 in China and Europe, and -$5 in Korea.
- The Domestic – Global HRC spread expanded, widening to $53.12 from $50.10. This marks the 5th consecutive week of bouncing back and forth between expansion and contraction.
Total Sheet Imports (s.ton)
- This week’s imports estimated sheet arrivals for December indicate an increase, rising to 877k tons from November’s census figure of 742k.
- The named countries from the filed trade petition represent nearly 80% of the expected total arrivals for coated products in 2024.
Domestic Production (s.ton)
- For the week ending on January 4th, capacity utilization ticked down by 1.1% to 73.6% and domestic raw steel production fell to 1.635m from 1.658m/tpw.
- This brings the year-to-date production to 1.635m, operating at a rate of 6%, -1.3% below this point last year.