Macro Flash Report

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS

Takeaway:

Yesterday’s preliminary durable goods data came in slightly better than expectations. Recent topline data (solid) has been highly volatile due to the uneven recovery in the transportation sector. However, underlying demand (ex. transportation, dotted) for goods remains remarkably stable over the last 2 years, with currently levels just shy of their November all-time highs.

February’s Durable Goods Orders saw a 1.4% increase, surpassing the anticipated 1.1% growth. This rise marked a significant recovery from January’s downwardly revised -6.9% decline.

• The resurgence was notably strong in the transportation sector, with a 3.3% increase, reversing the previous month’s 18.3% drop. This sector’s growth was led by gains in motor vehicles and parts (1.8%), contrasting with a dip before.

• Additionally, there was a positive movement in machinery (1.9%), fabricated metal products (0.8%), primary metals (0.8%), and capital goods (1.9%), all bouncing back from previous losses.

Durables Ex Transportation in February rose by 0.5%, beating market expectations of 0.3% growth and recovering from the previous month’s -0.4%.

• Excluding the substantial rise in transportation, which accounts for about one-third of all durable goods new orders, the non-transportation segment showed further resilience and growth, underscoring broader recovery across the manufacturing sector.