Macro Report

**Macro Flash – Industrial/Manufacturing Data Update**



December data for Industrial and Manufacturing Production unexpectedly rose, beating market expectations of flat or no growth, providing signals of resilience in the broader sectors. However, the significant downturn in the Empire (NY) Manufacturing Index highlights the continued bumpy road to recovery. While the 6-month forward look (Empire) highlights cautious optimism for improvement in the near term, headwinds remain intact for the 1st quarter.


Industrial Production MoM for December came in at 0.1%, slightly down from 0.2% the prior month and above market expectations of a decrease to -0.1%.

Manufacturing (SIC) Production December data fell to 0.1% from 0.3% the previous month, and above market expectations of a decrease to 0.0%.

For January, the NY Empire State Fed Manufacturing Index drastically fell to -43.7, marking its lowest level since May 2020 and indicating a significant decline in NY state’s manufacturing activity. This figure sharply contrasts

December’s -14.5 reading and the forecast of -5. Key indicators such as new orders and shipments experienced steep drops to -49.4 (from -11.3) and -31.3 (from -6.4), respectively. The rate of input price increases slightly picked up pace (23.2 from 16.7), while the pace of selling price increases remained relatively steady (9.5, close to 11.5).

Despite the current downturn, there is optimism as firms anticipate some improvement in conditions over the next six months (18.8, up from 12.1), with six-month new orders and shipments substantially increasing, 25.2 from 11.3 and 24.6 from 15.8.

Industrial Production

Manufacturing (SIC) Production

Empire Manufacturing (6 Month Moving Average)